Although Turkey's Deputy Prime Minister Yalcin Akdogan expressed hope that the militants of the outlawed Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) will leave Turkey next week, most experts believe this is only a wish.
"Not much will happen before the elections, so don't jump the gun," Yavuz Baydar, Turkish expert, cautioned.
He said recent comments issued by the militant leaders based in the Qandil Mountains where the outlawed PKK is based indicate there will be no such things as laying down arms or putting an end to armed struggle for good.
- Last week, Cemil Bayik, the number two man in the PKK, said the government's claim of the PKK laying down its arms is just an act of propaganda ahead of the national election.
Sabri Ok, another senior PKK leader, also noted that the government has taken no concrete steps since it announced a roadmap for the settlement of Turkey's Kurdish issue last month.
- That shows Ocalan, the main interlocutor in the settlement talks the government has been pursuing since 2012, has limited influence on the decision making process in the PKK leadership.
The government and Ocalan had recently agreed on a 10-page document which includes an item that the PKK lay down its weapons.
However, Bayik said that decision could only be taken in the PKK congress with Ocalan attending personally. Ocalan is convicted felon and has been serving an aggravated lifetime prison sentence in Imrali jail.
Both sides have been contemplating their moves with June 7 parliamentary elections in their minds, which further complicate the settlement talks.
"Almost all Turks are Turkish nationalists, and many of them are the governing Justice and Development Party AKP voters," said Ihsan Yilmaz, an academic at Fatih University.
He emphasized that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is not ready for a proper settlement of the Kurdish issue since his voters are not ready for it.
"At the moment, he (Erdogan) wants internal peace so that he can win the elections, but that is it," Yilmaz added.
The upcoming celebrations for spring festival Novruz on March 21 may be a road marker in the settlement talks. The PKK leader Ocalan is expected to deliver a statement for the celebrations.
The wording of a message may carry weight in shaping the government's talks with the PKK. It also has potential to shape political climate ahead of the elections.
The PKK's political wing pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party's (HDP) has sent a delegation to Qandil on Friday to hold talks with PKK leaders.
According to Suat Kiniklioglu, the executive director of Turkish think tanks, the most critical question of the June 7 elections will be whether or not the HDP will be able to pass the 10 percent threshold quota.
"The HDP entering Parliament as a party would change the political balance in the Southeast dramatically," he predicted, adding that the ruling AKP will have less seats in the Parliament.
If the HDP fails to pass the threshold, it may very well lead to a resumption of armed struggle by the PKK or an early election, Murat Yetkin, another Turkish analyst, predicted.
"If they cannot exceed the threshold, the lack of representation of the HDP in parliament would cause a big political vacuum," he said.
"In any case, Kurdish voters are likely to determine the outcome of the June 7 elections," Yetkin underlined.
Until the elections, both the government and the PKK have vested interest to not see the hostilities resumed.
The government touts the settlement process as success for the election campaign and the PKK is preoccupied itself with the unstable situation in northern Syria where the PKK offshoot has been battling with Islamic State militants.
Both sides benefit from an extended cease-fire and the laying down arms by the PKK does not seem to be an option for the moment.
The PKK has been fighting with the Turkish government for broader rights and autonomy. Some 40,000 people got killed in three decades long conflict.
Xinhua - china.org.cn
14/3/15
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