Monday, September 15, 2014

NATO arms can blow Ukrainian truce

Truce in Ukraine is holding for the second week. But experts are very cautious in their forecasts. Even now, shots are periodically heard on both sides, shells are exploding, people are dying. So one cannot speak about a complete ceasefire. Even more alarming are the statements by Kiev authorities about the supply of arms from NATO to Ukraine. According to Defense Minister Valery Geletey, this process has already started.

Kiev is torn apart. Negotiations with foreign partners and representatives of the south-east Ukrainian authorities to discuss a peaceful settlement of the conflict are carried out at one meeting, and military plans are discussed at another meeting at the same time. Over the weekend, Defence Minister Valery Geletey reported on a local television station that weapons from NATO member countries had already started arriving in the country:

“I attended the NATO summit with the President of Ukraine who did everything to ensure that I got there. I spoke privately with the defence ministers of the leading countries who can help us. And they heard us. I said "please help us!". And the supply of weapons went ahead. I am sure that this is the way which should be followed.”

This is not the first time that Ukrainian officials claim they have reached an agreement with the members of the North Atlantic Alliance about the supply of weapons. It was hinted by President Poroshenko. A detailed account was presented by his adviser, former Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko. NATO countries have tried to refute the allegations, denied the existence of agreements and the fact that this issue was raised in principle at the summit in Wales (UK). But Ukrainian authorities continue to insist – they have reached an agreement and arms supplies have already started. There is no doubt about the veracity of these words of Kiev, says the deputy director of the Institute of CIS Igor Shishkin:

“ Since the Ukrainian army has suffered heavy losses in the southeast, it is not possible to restore the combat capability of the units simply through mobilization. The Army needs new equipment. Ukrainian plants are not able to quickly produce the weapons. In this regard, it was already reported that the Ukraine will get secondhand Soviet equipment from the former Warsaw Pact countries (socialist countries in Eastern Europe). In particular, it was reported that the United States had offered to supply Croatia used American helicopters if they send helicopters MI-8 to Ukraine. Accordingly, other countries can also act in the same way. We are not talking about modern Western hardware, because then you have to retrain the military and also supply different type of ammunition. We are talking about the former Soviet equipment with which the military in Ukraine are familiar and for which the infrastructure already exists.”

But if Ukraine is being armed, it means that the current truce is very precarious and unreliable. Kiev agreed to it when the situation at the front was clearly not in its favour. Which way the pendulum will swing when the military of Kiev receives reinforcements is not known. Moscow prefers to express cautious optimism, hopes for common sense to prevail and trusts in the honesty of the Ukrainian authorities and their Western sponsors.

But we all remember how Ukraine violated its own promises this year which were affirmed by the signatures of western politicians. It cannot be ruled out that the same fate awaits this peace plan. In this case, the peace plan is being turned into a farce not only by Kiev, but also by NATO countries who speak of peace but supply arms to Ukraine, thus preparing for war.

http://indian.ruvr.ru/2014_09_15/NATO-arms-can-blow-Ukrainian-truce/
15/9/14
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