EU to Avoid Risking Relations with Latin America by Restricting Exports to Russia

MOSCOW, August 12 (RIA Novosti) -The European Union may try to influence Latin American countries to limit agricultural exports to Russia, but is highly unlikely to go beyond public statements, analysts told RIA Novosti.

Earlier on Tuesday, the Financial Times reported that Brussels is planning to hold talks with Brazil, Chile and other Latin American countries to talk them out of exporting food products to Russia to substitute banned European goods.
“The success of these attempts is hard to predict,” the head of the Center for Political Integration at the Institute of Europe, Nikolai Kaveshnikov, said.
According to the analyst, the reason for the uncertainty is not only that the European Union lacks serious instruments to influence Latin American countries, but the leftist and anti-American leadership of many Latin American countries combined with the interests of the Latin American business. “All of these factors will work together, suggesting Latin American food supplies are likely to come to Russian markets, substituting some of the European export positions,” the analyst concluded.
Kaveshnikov does not think that EU countries will impede the freight insurance of Latin American vessels bringing goods to Russia. “These measures are extremely rare. For instance, they were implemented as part of sanctions against Iran, when European countries refused to insure shipments to Iran. But the use of this instrument for political influence [in the current situation] seems absolutely beyond belief,” Kaveshnikov explained.
Another analyst questioned by RIA Novosti on the topic, the editor in chief of the Russia in Global Affairs journal and the chairman of presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Fyodor Lukyanov, believes that the European Union may attempt to exert pressure on Latin America “by regulating its access to [EU] markets.”

According to Lukyanov, European countries are important markets for Latin American countries so the restrictions, should they ever be implemented, will appear tangible.
Another sphere of possible EU pressure is machinery production. “Brazil produces its own aircraft, the Embraer, which is very good and is in high demand. But, of course, it’s competing with the other [planes] from the EU and America. Thus, here are some more opportunities to somehow influence [Brazil],” Lukyanov said.

However, Lukyanov does not expect any serious threats to Brazil from the European Union. A negative scenario is only possible if the European Union “gets so angry with Moscow that it will try any means to harm Russia.” But even then, Lukyanov is positive that Brazil “has all the resources to resist the pressure.”
 http://en.ria.ru/politics/20140812/191951126/EU-to-Avoid-Risking-Relations-with-Latin-America-by-Restricting.html
12/8/14
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